Reports

This report provides a daily track of the political state of play in South Africa's provinces of Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape in the lead up to the May 29 election. The baseline of the tracking poll is a survey of 1 835 demographically and geographically representative registered voters conducted by the Foundation during April of 2024. Every day 300 new participants are surveyed and the 300 oldest participants are removed from the survey. By doing so a daily moving average of 1 800 voters, that is refreshed every 6 days, is created. The data in the report is not a forecast of the May 29 election result, but rather a snapshot of the daily current position. Users of this report should be aware that towards the final days of a tracking poll it should be possible to see the trendlines flatten out as political opinion crystallizes immediately before an election. However, towards the late stages of this tracking poll that is not happening. The reason for this is that an unprecedented degree of voter uncertainty about which party to support, as the ANC fractures, is causing a smallshare of voters to move back and forth between the ANC, EFF, MK and also the DA. It is unlikely that this volatility will settle before the election. Users of this report should be further aware that a margin of error of just over 4% applies to the data in this report. What that means is that if the report estimates support for a party to be at a level of X, the level of support could be 4 or so percentage points above or below X. Between the volatility of voter decision making and margin of error, report users should be circumspect about making precise political predictions about the result of the May 29 election.

This report provides a daily track of the national political state of play in South Africa in the lead up to the May 29 election. The baseline of the tracking poll is a survey of 1 835 demographically and geographically representative registered voters conducted by the Foundation during April of 2024. Every day 300 new participants are surveyed and the 300 oldest participants are removed from the survey. By doing so a daily moving average of 1 800 voters, that is refreshed every 6 days, is created. The data in the report is not a forecast of the May 29 election result, but rather a snapshot of the daily current position. Users of this report should be aware that towards the final days of a tracking poll it should be possible to see the trendlines flatten out as political opinion crystallizes immediately before an election. However, towards the late stages of this tracking poll that is not happening. The reason for this is that an unprecedented degree of voter uncertainty about which party to support, as the ANC fractures, is causing a small share of voters to move back and forth between the ANC, EFF, MK and also the DA. It is unlikely that this volatility will settle before the election. Users of this report should be further aware that a margin of error of just over 2% applies to the data in this report. What that means is that if the report estimates support for a party to be at a level of X, the level of support could be 2 or so percentage points above or below X. Between the volatility of voter decision making and margin of error, report users should be circumspect about making precise political predictions about the result of the May 29 election.

This report investigates which political parties do registered South African voters think are trustworthy to make a national coalition work. The report is based on a survey of 1 835 demographically and geographically representative registered voters conducted by the Foundation during April of 2024. That survey had a margin of error of 2.2%. Totals may not add up to 100% where participants were undecided or unable to answer a question.

This report investigates support amongst registered voters towards policy positions on federalism, taxes and energy. It is the fourth of four reports that examine support amongst registered South African voters towards various policy reforms that could be pursued by a future coalition government. The report is based on a survey of 1 835 demographically and geographically representative registered voters conducted by the Foundation during April of 2024. That survey had a margin of error of 2.2%. The way in which support or opposition to potential policies was tested was by putting a series of statements about opposing policies to survey respondents. The respondents were asked to say which of the opposing statements they agreed with and how strongly they agreed or disagreed.

This report investigates support amongst registered voters towards varying foreign policy positions. It is the third of four reports that examine support amongst registered South African voters towards various policies that could be pursued by a future coalition government. The report is based on a survey of 1 835 demographically and geographically representative registered voters conducted by the Foundation during April of 2024. That survey had a margin of error of 2.2%. The way in which support or opposition to potential policies was tested was by putting a series of statements about opposing policies to survey respondents. The respondents were asked to say which of the opposing statements they agreed with and how strongly they agreed or disagreed.

This report investigates support amongst registered voters towards nationalisation of the health insurance, pension and school systems. It is the second of four reports that examine support amongst registered South African voters towards various policies that could be pursued by a future coalition government. The report is based on a survey of 1 835 demographically and geographically representative registered voters conducted by the Foundation during April of 2024. That survey had a margin of error of 2.2%. The way in which support or opposition to potential policy reforms was tested was by putting a series of statements about opposing policy reforms to survey respondents. The respondents were asked to say which of the opposing statements they agreed with and how strongly they agreed or disagreed.

This report investigates the support amongst registered voters towards race-based hiring, procurement and economic policies. It is the first of four reports that examine support or opposition to various policy reforms that a future South African coalition government might adopt. The report is based on a survey of 1 835 demographically and geographically representative registered voters conducted by the Foundation during April of 2024. That survey had a margin of error of 2.2%. The way in which support or opposition to potential policy reforms was tested was by putting a series of statements about opposing policy reforms to survey respondents. The respondents were asked to say which of the opposing statements they agreed with and how strongly they agreed or disagreed.

This report examines the perceptions of registered South African voters towards the Multi-Party Charter* and specifically the prospects for the success of that charter in government. The report is based on a survey of 1 835 demographically and geographically representative registered voters conducted by the Foundation during April of 2024. That survey had a margin of error of 2.2%.

This report examines the preferred coalition make up that South Africans would wish to see in the event that ANC support slips to below 50% in the May 29 election. The report is based on a survey of 1 835 demographically and geographically representative registered voters conducted by the Foundation during April of 2024. That survey had a margin of error of 2.2%.