Trump Has Moved Ahead In The American Presidential Race
This report is the fourth in a series tracking the political race in America ahead of that country's November 2024 presidential election. The data is drawn from a wide cross-section of polling organisations. The methodology applied to the data in this report was to award all states that polled within the margin of error in favour of Mr Trump to Ms Harris. All states that polled in favour of Ms Harris were awarded to Ms Harris regardless of margin of error. Only states that polled in favour of Mr Trump to a degree beyond the margin of error were awarded to Mr Trump.
List of States by Presumptive Winner
Trump vs Harris
| State | Electoral College Votes | SRF Presumptive Winner | Votes for Trump | Votes for Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | Trump | 9 | |
| Alaska | 3 | Trump | 3 | |
| Arizona | 11 | Swing (Trump) | 11 | |
| Arkansas | 6 | Trump | 6 | |
| California | 54 | Harris | 54 | |
| Colorado | 10 | Harris | 10 | |
| Connecticut | 7 | Harris | 7 | |
| Delaware | 3 | Harris | 3 | |
| District of Columbia | 3 | Harris | 3 | |
| Florida | 30 | Trump | 30 | |
| Georgia | 16 | Swing (Trump) | 16 | |
| Hawaii | 4 | Harris | 4 | |
| Idaho | 4 | Trump | 4 | |
| Illinois | 19 | Harris | 19 | |
| Indiana | 11 | Trump | 11 | |
| Iowa | 6 | Trump | 6 | |
| Kansas | 6 | Trump | 6 | |
| Kentucky | 8 | Trump | 8 | |
| Louisiana | 8 | Trump | 8 | |
| Maine | 4 | Harris (3) Trump (1) | 1 | 3 |
| Maryland | 10 | Harris | 10 | |
| Massachusetts | 11 | Harris | 11 | |
| Michigan | 15 | Swing (Trump) | 15 | |
| Minnesota | 10 | Harris | 10 | |
| Mississippi | 6 | Trump | 6 | |
| Missouri | 10 | Trump | 10 | |
| Montana | 4 | Trump | 4 | |
| Nebraska | 5 | Trump (4) Harris (1) | 4 | 1 |
| Nevada | 6 | Swing (Harris) | 6 | |
| New Hampshire | 4 | Harris | 4 | |
| New Jersey | 14 | Harris | 14 | |
| New Mexico | 5 | Harris | 5 | |
| New York | 28 | Harris | 28 | |
| North Carolina | 16 | Swing (Harris) | 16 | |
| North Dakota | 3 | Trump | 3 | |
| Ohio | 17 | Trump | 17 | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | Trump | 7 | |
| Oregon | 8 | Harris | 8 | |
| Pennsylvania | 19 | Swing (Trump) | 19 | |
| Rhode Island | 4 | Harris | 4 | |
| South Carolina | 9 | Trump | 9 | |
| South Dakota | 3 | Trump | 3 | |
| Tennessee | 11 | Trump | 11 | |
| Texas | 40 | Trump | 40 | |
| Utah | 6 | Trump | 6 | |
| Vermont | 3 | Harris | 3 | |
| Virginia | 13 | Harris | 13 | |
| Washington | 12 | Harris | 12 | |
| West Virginia | 4 | Trump | 4 | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | Swing (Harris) | 10 | |
| Wyoming | 3 | Trump | 3 | |
| Total | 538 | 280 | 258 |
TENTATIVE CONCLUSIONS
The data suggests that Mr Trump has pulled ahead in many of the swing states in America. This is despite the methodology of this report advantaging Ms Harris. The race remains very close particularly with regards to Pennsylvania which this report awarded to Mr Trump. Were he to lose Pennsylvania, and all other states remain as they have been called in this report, then Ms Harris would win the presidency. There is also the question in this report of awarding North Carolina to Ms Harris. That was a consequence of the margin of error methodology employed. In the event that Mr Trump wins North Carolina but loses Pennsylvania he would still win the election. Therefore, with the data as it currently stands the Foundation would call the American election in favour of Donald Trump.
