South Africa's Political State of Play - June 2025
This report tracks the political state of play in South Africa in June 2025. It does so via a survey of 1 004 demographically and geographically representative registered voters conducted by the Foundation during June of 2025. That survey had a margin of error of 4%. Comparisons are drawn between two previous Foundation surveys and the May 2024 election result. Only parties that polled above or very close to this margin of error are identified by name in this report. The data in the report is not a forecast of a future South African election.
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for (on your national ballot paper)?
May 2024 national election results, September 2024 survey, February 2025 survey and June 2025 survey
TENTATIVE CONCLUSIONS
The data demonstrates that the ANC has returned to its May 2024 support levels. Previous Foundation surveys had found the ANC support level to be trending down from its 2024 election results, especially during the debate around the VAT increase. Following that debate and the return to the previous 'equilibrium' of the GNU, party support levels within the GNU have essentially returned to where they were prior to the VAT debate. Outside of the GNU, MK has seen sharp growth on the back of a sharp decline in EFF support.
