South Africa’s Political State of Play in October 2023
This report investigates the political balance of power in South Africa in October 2023. It is based on a survey of 1412 geographically and demographically representative registered voters commissioned by the Foundation. That survey had a national margin of error of 5%.
The comparisons to earlier in 2023 and 2022 are drawn from two prior Foundation surveys. The first was a survey of 1517 demographically and geographically representative registered voters conducted in March 2023. That survey had a national margin of error of 4%. The second was a survey of 3 204 demographically and geographically representative voters conducted in July 2022. That survey had a national margin of error of 1.7%.
Only parties that polled above the margin of error are included in this report. The survey data is not a forecast of South Africa’s 2024 national elections.
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for?
66% turnout
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for?
56% turnout
Tentative Conclusions
The data reveals that ANC support levels appear to have slipped somewhat relative to July 2022 and March 2023. DA support levels appear to have lifted over that same period as has support for the IFP. EFF support appears to be pinned near the 10% mark. All others parties have support levels near or under the margin of error.
