South Africa's Political State of Play - February 2025
This report investigates the political state of play in South Africa in February 2025. It does so via a survey of 1 004 demographically and geographically representative registered voters conducted by the Foundation during February of 2025. That survey had a margin of error of 4%. Only parties that polled above or very close to this margin of error are identified by name in this report. The data in the report is not a forecast of a future South African election.
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for (on your national ballot paper)?
May 2024 National election results, September 2024 survey and February 2025 survey
TENTATIVE CONCLUSIONS
The Foundation determines voter intention via a number of questions, these include direct questions on voting intention, as well as indirect questions on perceptions of party performance and party leaders. Respondents must pass strict numerical thresholds to be assigned as party voters. In the case of the ANC, a significant chunk of its voter base is so dissatisfied with the party and uncertain about their future voting intention that they no longer pass the requisite thresholds to be assigned as ANC voters. In many respects these are now free agents in South Africa's voting market. The ANC, arguably, has a better prospect than any other party of securing most of the votes of these voters which is why the Foundation has tentatively included them in the ANC bar of the above graph, even though they now fail to meet the threshold that the Foundation would ordinarily require to assign a voter to a particular party. This is the central and most important finding of the Foundation's February 2025 survey as these voters will likely determine the future balance of power in South African party politics.
