April 2024
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Social Research Foundation Daily Tracking Poll - Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape

This report provides a daily track of the political state of play in South Africa's provinces of Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape in the lead up to the May 29 election. The baseline of the tracking poll is a survey of 1 835 demographically and geographically representative registered voters conducted by the Foundation during April of 2024. Every day 200 new participants are surveyed and the 200 oldest participants are removed from the survey. By doing so this creates a daily moving average. The data in the report is not a forecast of the May 29 election result, but rather a snapshot of the daily current position. Readers must be aware that this position is very different from that of just 12 months ago and that equally significant changes to the position may play out during the lead up to the election. New data will be added every day of the week before the election, the track will run from 15 April until 25 May. Days of the track will be listed as dates, all days fall within April and May 2024.

If provincial elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for (on your provincial ballot paper)?

Gauteng - turnout modeled 68%

If provincial elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for (on your provincial ballot paper)?

Gauteng - turnout modeled 62%

If provincial elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for (on your provincial ballot paper)?

KwaZulu-Natal - turnout modeled 66%

If provincial elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for (on your provincial ballot paper)?

KwaZulu-Natal - turnout modeled 60%

If provincial elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for (on your provincial ballot paper)?

Western Cape - 66% turnout modeled

If provincial elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for (on your provincial ballot paper)?

Western Cape - 60% turnout modeled