Preferred Coalition Agreements in Kwazulu-Natal
This report investigates the coalition agreements preferred by registered KwaZulu-Natal voters. The data in the report comes from a September 2023 Foundation survey. The survey was conducted telephonically amongst a sample of 2 434 geographically and demographically representative registered voters in KwaZulu-Natal. The survey has a provincial margin of error of 3%. Totals may not add up to 100% where respondents refused to answer a question or where rounding has occurred.
There is a prospect that after the 2024 provincials elections in Kwazulu-Natal, no one party will win 51% and a majority, and political parties in the province will be forced to form a coalition government to govern; if this happens, which of the following coalition arrangements would you prefer?
By race
There is a prospect that after the 2024 provincials elections in Kwazulu-Natal, no one party will win 51% and a majority, and political parties in the province will be forced to form a coalition government to govern; if this happens, which of the following coalition arrangements would you prefer?
By highest level of education
There is a prospect that after the 2024 provincials elections in Kwazulu-Natal, no one party will win 51% and a majority, and political parties in the province will be forced to form a coalition government to govern; if this happens, which of the following coalition arrangements would you prefer?
By employment status
There is a prospect that after the 2024 provincials elections in Kwazulu-Natal, no one party will win 51% and a majority, and political parties in the province will be forced to form a coalition government to govern; if this happens, which of the following coalition arrangements would you prefer?
By home language
There is a prospect that after the 2024 provincials elections in Kwazulu-Natal, no one party will win 51% and a majority, and political parties in the province will be forced to form a coalition government to govern; if this happens, which of the following coalition arrangements would you prefer?
By residential area
There is a prospect that after the 2024 provincials elections in Kwazulu-Natal, no one party will win 51% and a majority, and political parties in the province will be forced to form a coalition government to govern; if this happens, which of the following coalition arrangements would you prefer?
By party affiliation
Tentative Conclusions
The data reveals that of all registered voters in KwaZulu-Natal, 22,4% would prefer the IFP and DA working together, 19,3% would prefer the ANC and EFF working together, and 18,6% would prefer the ANC and IFP working together. This differs across demographic lines, with a plurality of voters living in suburbs and CBDs preferring a coalition between the IFP and DA, whilst a plurality living in townships and informal settlements would prefer a coalition between the ANC and EFF, and a plurality of rural voters would prefer a coalition between the ANC and IFP. Amongst black voters, 23% would prefer an ANC-EFF coalition, 22% would prefer an ANC-IFP coalition and 14% would prefer an IFP-DA coalition. Amongst white voters 76% would prefer an IFP-DA coalition, amongst Indian voters 61% would prefer an IFP-DA coalition, whilst amongst coloured voters 49% would prefer an IFP-DA coalition.
