Polling the American Election
This report is the first in a series tracking the political race in America ahead of that country's November 2024 presidential election. The data is drawn from a wide cross-section of polling organisations. The methodology applied to the data in this report was to award all states that polled within the margin of error in favour of Mr Trump to Mr Biden. All states that polled in favour of Mr Biden were awarded to Mr Biden regardless of margin of error. Only states that polled in favour of Mr Trump to a degree beyond the margin of error were awarded to Mr Trump.
List of States by Presumptive Winner
Trump vs Biden
| State | Electoral College Votes | SRF Presumptive Winner | Votes for Trump | Votes for Biden |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | Trump | 9 | |
| Alaska | 3 | Trump | 3 | |
| Arizona | 11 | Swing (Trump) | 11 | |
| Arkansas | 6 | Trump | 6 | |
| California | 54 | Biden | 54 | |
| Colorado | 10 | Biden | 10 | |
| Connecticut | 7 | Biden | 7 | |
| Delaware | 3 | Biden | 3 | |
| District of Columbia | 3 | Biden | 3 | |
| Florida | 30 | Trump | 30 | |
| Georgia | 16 | Swing (Trump) | 16 | |
| Hawaii | 4 | Biden | 4 | |
| Idaho | 4 | Trump | 4 | |
| Illinois | 19 | Biden | 19 | |
| Indiana | 11 | Trump | 11 | |
| Iowa | 6 | Trump | 6 | |
| Kansas | 6 | Trump | 6 | |
| Kentucky | 8 | Trump | 8 | |
| Louisiana | 8 | Trump | 8 | |
| Maine | 4 | Biden (3) Trump (1) | 1 | 3 |
| Maryland | 10 | Biden | 10 | |
| Massachusetts | 11 | Biden | 11 | |
| Michigan | 15 | Swing (Biden) | 15 | |
| Minnesota | 10 | Biden | 10 | |
| Mississippi | 6 | Trump | 6 | |
| Missouri | 10 | Trump | 10 | |
| Montana | 4 | Trump | 4 | |
| Nebraska | 5 | Trump (4) Biden (1) | 4 | 1 |
| Nevada | 6 | Swing (Trump) | 6 | |
| New Hampshire | 4 | Biden | 4 | |
| New Jersey | 14 | Biden | 14 | |
| New Mexico | 5 | Biden | 5 | |
| New York | 28 | Biden | 28 | |
| North Carolina | 16 | Trump | 16 | |
| North Dakota | 3 | Trump | 3 | |
| Ohio | 17 | Trump | 17 | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | Trump | 7 | |
| Oregon | 8 | Biden | 8 | |
| Pennsylvania | 19 | Swing (Biden) | 19 | |
| Rhode Island | 4 | Biden | 4 | |
| South Carolina | 9 | Trump | 9 | |
| South Dakota | 3 | Trump | 3 | |
| Tennessee | 11 | Trump | 11 | |
| Texas | 40 | Trump | 40 | |
| Utah | 6 | Trump | 6 | |
| Vermont | 3 | Biden | 3 | |
| Virginia | 13 | Biden | 13 | |
| Washington | 12 | Biden | 12 | |
| West Virginia | 4 | Trump | 4 | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | Swing (Biden) | 10 | |
| Wyoming | 3 | Trump | 3 | |
| Total | 538 | 268 | 270 |
TENTATIVE CONCLUSIONS
The methodology employed by this report delivered an extremely close run result where in early April 2024 Mr Biden would win the presidency by a margin of just two electoral college votes. Had the report employed a less conservative methodology with regards to Mr Trump it would have suggested that he win with a margin of victory closer to seventy electoral college votes.
