Polling Jacob Zuma
This report investigates the popularity of Jacob Zuma in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa. It does so via testing Jacob Zuma’s political favourability score* on a national level and for KwaZulu-Natal. It also tests which president KwaZulu-Natal voters think was the best for the province.
The national data is based on a survey of 1 412 geographically and demographically representative registered voters commissioned by the Foundation in October 2023. That survey had a national margin of error of 5%. The KwaZulu-Natal data is based on a survey of 2 432 geographically and demographically representative registered voters commissioned by the Foundation in September 2023. That survey had a provincial margin of error of 3%.
*The scores are calculated by asking survey participants the following question, “on a scale of 0 to 100, with 0 being
a very cold unfavourable feeling, 50 being not particularly warm or cold and 100 being a very warm favourable feeling,
how do you feel about candidate X?”. Scores of 89 and higher are recorded as being ‘very favourable’. Scores of 64
and above were recorded as ‘somewhat favourable’. Scores of 39 to 63 are recorded as ‘neutral’, scores of 14 to 38
as ‘somewhat unfavourable’, and scores of 13 and below as ‘very unfavourable’.
Jacob Zuma Favourability - National
By race
Jacob Zuma Favourability - National
By party affiliation
Jacob Zuma Favourability - KwaZulu Natal
By race
Jacob Zuma Favourability - KwaZulu Natal
By party affiliation
Which of the following South African presidents do you think was or has been best for the province of KwaZulu-Natal?
By race
Which of the following South African presidents do you think was or has been best for the province of KwaZulu-Natal?
By party affiliation
Tentative Conclusions
The data reveals that Jacob Zuma’s favourability score is 28.9% amongst all registered voters on a national level and 63.1% amongst all registered voters in KwaZulu-Natal. Beware that favourability does not easily translate into electoral support in the absence of an extremely strong party infrastructure. The Foundation’s estimate is that Mr Zuma’s new political venture might at best shave just a few political points off the ANC’s support base.
