Political State of Play in The Western Cape in March 2024
This report investigates the political balance of power in the Western Cape in March 2024.
It is based on a survey of 815 geographically and demographically representative registered voters in the Western Cape commissioned by the Foundation. That survey has a provincial margin of error of 5%. A comparison to 2023 and to 2022 is drawn from prior Foundation surveys. The 2023 survey interviewed 2 590 geographically and demographically representative registered voters in the Western Cape. That survey had a provincial margin of error of 2.9%. The 2022 survey interviewed 507 geographically and demographically representative voters in the Western Cape. That survey had a provincial margin of error of 4,4%. All the data is modeled for a 66% turnout rate. Be aware that this is not a forecast level of turnout and that different turnout levels may produce very different political results. Only parties that polled above the margin of error in the 2024 survey are cited by name in this report. The survey data is not a forecast of South Africa’s 2024 Western Cape election results.
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for (on your national ballot paper)?
National ballot paper
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for (on your provincial ballot paper)?
Provincial ballot paper
Tentative Conclusions
The data suggests that the DA is holding its majority on the national ballot paper, even as its majority on the provincial ballot paper comes under pressure and is now within the margin of error. What that means is that it is plausible for the election to deliver a coalition government in the Western Cape.
