Political State of Play in South Africa's Battleground Provinces in April 2024
This report tracks the current political state of play in the South African provinces of Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape in April 2024. It does so via surveying 410 demographically and geographically representative registered voters in Gauteng with a provincial margin of error of 4.7%, 408 in KwaZulu-Natal with a provincial margin of error of 4.8% and 410 in the Western Cape with a provincial margin of error of 4.7%. The data in the report is not a forecast of the May 29 election result, but rather a snapshot of the likely current position. Only parties that polled near or above the margins of error are cited by name and readers must be aware that there is very limited utility to a number for a party that polls near the margin of error of a study.
Gauteng
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for (on your national ballot paper)?
Gauteng
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for (on your provincial ballot paper)?
KwaZulu-Natal
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for (on your national ballot paper)?
KwaZulu-Natal
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for (on your provincial ballot paper)?
Western Cape
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for (on your national ballot paper)?
Western Cape
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for (on your provincial ballot paper)?
TENTATIVE CONCLUSIONS
The data suggests that coalition governments will have to be formed in both Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal and that these governments may require the cooperation of at least three political parties. Even were minority governments to be formed these may need to be held in place by the cooperation of at least three political parties. Negotiations around the formation of these provincial governments will likely give direction to the formation of any national government.
