Political State Of Play After A Motion Of No Confidence in President Cyril Ramaphosa
This report investigates the potential political state of play if there were to be a successful motion of no confidence in President Cyril Ramaphosa. The data in the report comes from a survey of 1 004 demographically and geographically representative registered voters conducted by the Foundation during February of 2025. That survey had a margin of error of 4%. This report is not a forecast of a future South African election.
If there was a vote of no confidence in President Cyril Ramaposa in parliament, he was removed as President of South Africa and a new election was called, which political party would you vote for in those new national elections?
58% turnout model
TENTATIVE CONCLUSIONS
The data indicates that without Cyril Ramaphosa as its leader the ANC would sit just above 20%, this would place it as the second largest party, behind the DA. The DA, EFF and MK would all receive moderate boosts in support, but the biggest growth would be amongst the 'free agents' category. This result is further evidence of the importance of Cyril Ramaphosa's presence in the ANC in maintaining that party's support levels. An interesting question is therefore raised as to what effect the loss of Ramaphosa's leadership after the 2027 elective conference will have on ANC support levels.
