Political Balance of Power in The Western Cape
This report investigates the political balance of power in the Western Cape at the beginning of July 2023. The data in the report comes from a July 2023 Foundation survey. The survey was conducted telephonically amongst a sample of 2 590 geographically and demographically representative registered voters in the Western Cape. The survey has provincial margin of error of 2.9%. The tables in the report cite data for all parties that recorded over 0.5% on their national ballot paper. Be aware that several of these smaller parties recorded support levels well inside the margin of error and that their data needs to be interpreted with particular caution therefore. Totals will not add up to 100% where parties with less than 0.5% support have been excluded and/or where respondents could not answer a question. The survey data is not a forecast of the Western Cape's national and provincial election results.
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for? (On your national ballot paper)
By all registered voters and with turnout modelled for 66%
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for? (On your national ballot paper)
By race
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for? (On your national ballot paper)
By home language
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for? (On your national ballot paper)
By highest level of education
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for? (On your national ballot paper)
By employment status
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for? (On your national ballot paper)
By residential area
If a provincial election was held today, which party would you vote for? (On your provincial ballot paper)
By all registered voters and with turnout modelled for 66%
If a provincial election was held today, which party would you vote for? (On your provincial ballot paper)
By race
If a provincial election was held today, which party would you vote for? (On your provincial ballot paper)
By home language
If a provincial election was held today, which party would you vote for? (On your provincial ballot paper)
By highest level of education
If a provincial election was held today, which party would you vote for? (On your provincial ballot paper)
By employment status
If a provincial election was held today, which party would you vote for? (On your provincial ballot paper)
By residential area
TENTATIVE CONCLUSIONS
The raw data for the national ballot shows that in the Western Cape the DA is polling at 51.1%, the ANC at 8.0%, the EFF at 17.3%, the PA at 7.0% and the ACDP at 3.9%. The other, smaller parties all polled within the margin of error on the raw data and their results should, therefore, be interpreted with caution. When the data is modelled for a 66% turnout scenario (the same as the previous national election) the DA moves up to 55%, the ANC stays at 8%, the EFF moves to 15%, the PA to 8% and the ACDP to 4%.
When looking at the raw data for the provincial ballot, it shows that in the Western Cape the DA is polling at 60.4%, the ANC at 11.6%, the EFF at 17.6% and the ACDP at 4.7%. On that ballot PA support falls to within the margin of error. When the provincial ballot data is
modelled for 66% turnout, the DA polls at 64%, the ANC at 13%, the EFF at 15% and the ACDP at 5%. The Foundation’s tentative conclusions are that the DA is set to retain the Western Cape in South Africa’s 2024 elections, that support for the ANC in the province is collapsing in favour of the EFF and that sharp variances between the national and provincial ballots apply in the coloured voting market.
