Political Balance Of Power in Kwazulu-Natal
This report investigates the political balance of power in KwaZulu-Natal at the end of September 2023. The data in the report comes from a September 2023 Foundation survey. The survey was conducted telephonically amongst a sample of 2 434 geographically and demographically representative registered voters in KwaZulu-Natal. The survey has a provincial margin of error of 3%. The tables in the report cite data for all parties that polled over 0.5% on their national ballot paper question. Be aware that several of these smaller parties recorded support levels well inside the margin of error and that their data needs to be interpreted with particular caution therefore. Totals will not add up to 100% where parties with less than 0.5% support have been excluded and/or where respondents could not answer a question. The survey data is not a forecast of KwaZulu-Natal’s national and provincial election results.
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for? (On your national ballot paper)
By party affiliation
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for? (On your provincial ballot paper)
By party affiliation
Tentative Conclusions
The data reveals that ANC support in KwaZulu-Natal is down sharply from the 54.2% level it recorded on the provincial ballot in the 2019 election. IFP support is up sharply from 16.3% in the 2019 election. Support for the DA has also risen from 13.9%. Support for the EFF is largely flat. The data suggests that KwaZulu-Natal may be one of the initial test cases of coalition formation on the provincial level.