March 2024

Medium-Term Election Polling Trends for South Africa

This report collates a series of national election polling data conducted in South Africa since late 2022. The data is drawn from multiple polling groups including: IPSOS, MarkDATA, the Brenthurst Foundation, the Institute of Race Relations and the SRF. These groups use different methodologies and sample sizes and turnout methodologies in producing their poll numbers.

The purpose of this report is to collate that data into trendlines and averages to test the extent to which common themes emerge from the data. Be aware that margins of error averaging in the region of 3% apply to the data. The data is not a forecast of the 2024 election result.

Poll Trends and Averages Since 2022

Average of All Polls Since 2022


Considering the diversity of methodologies employed by different polling groups the data trendlines reveal very little by way of outliers and the poll averages might therefore be read as a reliable gauge of the relative standing of political parties over the past 24 months.