KwaZulu-Natal’s Political State Of Play In February 2024
This report examines the political balance of power in KwaZulu-Natal in February 2024. The data in the report is drawn from two Foundation surveys. The first is a survey of 820 geographically and demographically representative registered voters commissioned by the Foundation in February 2024. This survey has a provincial margin of error of 5%.
A comparison to 2023 is drawn from a prior Foundation survey. That was a survey of 2 434 geographically and demographically representative registered voters in KwaZulu-Natal commissioned in September 2023. That survey had a provincial margin of error of 3%.
Only parties that polled above the margin of error are cited by name in this report. The survey data is not a forecast of South Africa’s 2024 provincial election result.
Question: If general elections were taking place today, who would you vote for? (On your national ballot paper)
Answer: National Ballot
Question: If general elections were taking place today, who would you vote for? (On your provincial ballot paper)
Answer: Provincial Ballot
Tentative Conclusions
The data suggests that the introduction of the umKhonto weSizwe (MK) party has created a marked change in the balance of power in KwaZulu-Natal. On both the national and provincial ballots MK has the potential to achieve vote shares above 20% in KwaZulu-Natal. Additionally, the data suggests that it has the potential to become the leading party in KwaZulu-Natal. If the MK party stays at these levels in KwaZulu-Natal then it will take around five percentage points from the ANC at the national level. Given that the ANC is currently polling at around 45% at a national level the effect could be to drive its national number to near 40% come the elections later this year.
