If the ANC Falls Below 50% What Coalition Government Would South Africans Wish to See in Power
This report examines the preferred coalition make up that South Africans would wish to see in the event that ANC support slips to below 50% in the May 29 election. The report is based on a survey of 1 835 demographically and geographically representative registered voters conducted by the Foundation during April of 2024. That survey had a margin of error of 2.2%.
If the ANC falls below 50% nationally and had to form a coalition, which coalition government would you wish to see?
First-choice
If the ANC falls below 50% nationally and had to form a coalition, which coalition government would you wish to see?
Second-choice
TENTATIVE CONCLUSIONS
There is no majority position currently anchoring public opinion on the ideal coalition make up. There is a slight first-choice plurality in favour of an ANC-DA deal, closely followed by an ANC-EFF deal. In third place is an ANC-MKP deal. When second choices are taken into account the plurality in favour of the ANC-DA deal is strengthened. Previous Foundation research has suggested that South Africans might be convinced to support any coalition deal if the quality of the advocacy in favour of that deal is compelling enough and in this regard public opinion on deal formation is still something of a blank slate. Foundation research has also shown that sustaining public support for any deal will depend almost exclusively on the ability of the government in question to bring about sustained improvements in the living standards of voters.
