Foreign Policy Preferences of South African Voters
This report investigates the foreign policy preferences of registered South African voters towards whether the South African government should align its foreign policy with Russia and China or with the West. The data in the report comes from three Foundation surveys. The first is from a survey of 1 204 demographically and geographically representative registered voters conducted by the Foundation during September of 2024. That survey had a margin of error of 3%. The second is from a survey of 1 835 demographically and geographically representative registered voters conducted in April 2024. That survey had a margin of error of 4%. The third is from a survey of 1 412 geographically and demographically representative registered voters commissioned by the Foundation in October 2023. That survey had a national margin of error of 5%.
October 2023 - South Africa should align its foreign policy with Russia and China and against the USA and the EU. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?
By race
October 2023 - South Africa should align its foreign policy with Russia and China and against the USA and the EU. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?
By education
October 2023 - South Africa should align its foreign policy with Russia and China and against the USA and the EU. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?
By party affiliation
April 2024 - Which statement do you agree with: 'A future coalition government aligns South Africa's foreign policy with countries like Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia, and against the West.' OR 'A future coalition government align South Africa's foreign policy with the West, and against countries like Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia.'
By race
April 2024 - Which statement do you agree with: 'A future coalition government aligns South Africa's foreign policy with countries like Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia, and against the West.' OR 'A future coalition government align South Africa's foreign policy with the West, and against countries like Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia.'
By education
April 2024 - Which statement do you agree with: 'A future coalition government aligns South Africa's foreign policy with countries like Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia, and against the West.' OR 'A future coalition government align South Africa's foreign policy with the West, and against countries like Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia.'
By party affiliation
September 2024 - The GNU should align South Africa's foreign policy with the West, and against countries like Russia, China, and Iran.
By race
September 2024 - The GNU should align South Africa's foreign policy with the West, and against countries like Russia, China, and Iran.
By education
September 2024 - The GNU should align South Africa's foreign policy with the West, and against countries like Russia, China, and Iran.
By party affiliation
September 2024 - The GNU should align South Africa's foreign policy with countries like Russia, China, and Iran, and against the West.
By race
September 2024 - The GNU should align South Africa's foreign policy with countries like Russia, China, and Iran, and against the West.
By education
September 2024 - The GNU should align South Africa's foreign policy with countries like Russia, China, and Iran, and against the West.
By party affiliation
TENTATIVE CONCLUSIONS
Read over time the data shows that public opinion is broadly evenly split on the question of whether South Africa should align its foreign policy with or against Western liberal democracies. Amongst ANC and black nationalist party supporters the split is against the West, while amongst DA supporters the split is in favour of the West. Given South Africa's immense geo-strategic importance as a gateway between the Indian and Atlantic oceans and given further its influence in shaping African opinions on global fora this data takes on much greater levels of importance than it is commonly afforded in South Africa. If pressed into making a hard call the data over time may indicate that the West is losing the battle for public opinion in South Africa.
