Could The ANC Still Reach 50+1%?

This report explores a potential route to an ANC majority in the South African elections that will take place later this week. The case for an ANC majority rests on four insights. The first is that in both 2022 and 2023 the Foundation polled ANC support at a relatively stable near 50% mark – and on occasions even slightly above that. It was only the 2024 introduction of the MK party into the election that changed this driving ANC support into the mid- and even lower-40 percentiles (as MK support rose to just over 10%). The second is that after hitting a low point of near 40% roughly six weeks ago ANC support lifted steadily to break through the 45% mark about 10 days ago as the ANC campaign machine got into full swing (a long established phenomenon of South African elections). ANC support was subsequently driven downwards again by the joint events of the government’s NHI announcement and the Constitutional Court judgment that Mr Zuma was unfit to stand for parliament (an event that drove support for Mr Zuma’s MK party sharply upwards). The ANC has since held its final (successful) rally in Johannesburg and also commandeered the state broadcaster to address the nation and both of these actions should lift its support levels by an extent that the Foundation’s tracking poll may not fully digest ahead of the vote. The third is that the MK party is a new phenomenon and that its growth is carried by sentiment, which may be fickle, whilst the KwaZulu-Natal province, which serves as its home base, is difficult to poll. Trendlines of the past week have continued to put MK party support levels at just upwards of 10%. Whether MK will be able to turn out the vote to secure something approximating that number is a key uncertainty of this election around which the question of a surprise ANC majority pivots. The fourth is that trendlines for the DA and EFF at upwards of 20% and near 10% respectively are in line with their established numbers of several past elections. A minority call therefore, of the Foundation, is that if MK support flounders on the day of the vote to something near 5% to 7% that will free up around 5% of the vote, the bulk of which should flow back to the ANC and may thereby be sufficient to drive its final number to just over 50%. Whilst it is not probable, it therefore remains plausible, that the ANC may secure a majority. In the charts below the Foundation has compared and contrasted ANC and MK support numbers through May to demonstrate how MK underperformance may deliver an ANC majority.