Trump Takes Vast Lead in American Election Race
This report is the second in a series tracking the political race in America ahead of that country's November 2024 presidential election. The data is drawn from a wide cross-section of polling organisations.
The methodology applied to the data in this report was to award all states that polled within the margin of error in favour of Mr Trump to Mr Biden. All states that polled in favour of Mr Biden were awarded to Mr Biden regardless of margin of error. Only states that polled in favour of Mr Trump to a degree beyond the margin of error were awarded to Mr Trump.
List of States by Presumptive Winner
Trump vs Biden
| State | Electoral College Votes | SRF Presumptive Winner | Votes for Trump | Votes for Biden |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | Trump | 9 | |
| Alaska | 3 | Trump | 3 | |
| Arizona | 11 | Swing (Trump) | 11 | |
| Arkansas | 6 | Trump | 6 | |
| California | 54 | Biden | 54 | |
| Colorado | 10 | Biden | 10 | |
| Connecticut | 7 | Biden | 7 | |
| Delaware | 3 | Biden | 3 | |
| District of Columbia | 3 | Biden | 3 | |
| Florida | 30 | Trump | 30 | |
| Georgia | 16 | Swing (Trump) | 16 | |
| Hawaii | 4 | Biden | 4 | |
| Idaho | 4 | Trump | 4 | |
| Illinois | 19 | Biden | 19 | |
| Indiana | 11 | Trump | 11 | |
| Iowa | 6 | Trump | 6 | |
| Kansas | 6 | Trump | 6 | |
| Kentucky | 8 | Trump | 8 | |
| Louisiana | 8 | Trump | 8 | |
| Maine | 4 | Biden (3) Trump (1) | 1 | 3 |
| Maryland | 10 | Biden | 10 | |
| Massachusetts | 11 | Biden | 11 | |
| Michigan | 15 | Swing (Biden) | 15 | |
| Minnesota | 10 | Biden | 10 | |
| Mississippi | 6 | Trump | 6 | |
| Missouri | 10 | Trump | 10 | |
| Montana | 4 | Trump | 4 | |
| Nebraska | 5 | Trump (4) Biden (1) | 4 | 1 |
| Nevada | 6 | Swing (Trump) | 6 | |
| New Hampshire | 4 | Biden | 4 | |
| New Jersey | 14 | Biden | 14 | |
| New Mexico | 5 | Biden | 5 | |
| New York | 28 | Biden | 28 | |
| North Carolina | 16 | Trump | 16 | |
| North Dakota | 3 | Trump | 3 | |
| Ohio | 17 | Trump | 17 | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | Trump | 7 | |
| Oregon | 8 | Biden | 8 | |
| Pennsylvania | 19 | Swing (Trump) | 19 | |
| Rhode Island | 4 | Biden | 4 | |
| South Carolina | 9 | Trump | 9 | |
| South Dakota | 3 | Trump | 3 | |
| Tennessee | 11 | Trump | 11 | |
| Texas | 40 | Trump | 40 | |
| Utah | 6 | Trump | 6 | |
| Vermont | 3 | Biden | 3 | |
| Virginia | 13 | Biden | 13 | |
| Washington | 12 | Biden | 12 | |
| West Virginia | 4 | Trump | 4 | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | Swing (Biden) | 10 | |
| Wyoming | 3 | Trump | 3 | |
| Total | 538 | 287 | 251 |
TENTATIVE CONCLUSIONS
The data suggests that Mr Trump has taken a 36 seat electoral college lead in the race for the White House. After President Reagan was shot in March of 1981 his approval rating rose by 10 points and held that elevated level for almost 2 months, while rising to over 50 amongst Democrats. The full consequences of the attempted assassination of President Trump must still feed into the American data and this may very well lift his lead even further.
