American Election Has Moved to A Toss-Up
This report is the third in a series tracking the political race in America ahead of that country's November 2024 presidential election. The data is drawn from a wide cross-section of polling organisations. This report produces three tables employing three different methodologies. The first methodology was to award states that polled generally in favour of either candidate to that candidate. The second was to award states that polled within the margins of error to Mr Trump. The third was to award states that polled within the margins of error to Ms Harris.
https://srfreports.co.za/reports/american-election-has-moved-to-a-toss-up
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American Election Has Moved to A Toss-Up
This report is the third in a series tracking the political race in America ahead of that country's November 2024 presidential election. The data is drawn from a wide cross-section of polling organisations.
This report produces three tables employing three different methodologies. The first methodology was to award states that polled generally in favour of either candidate to that candidate. The second was to award states that polled within the margins of error to Mr Trump. The third was to award states that polled within the margins of error to Ms Harris.
List of states by presumptive winner
Trump vs Harris
| State |
Electoral College Votes |
SRF Presumptive Winner |
Votes for Trump |
Votes for Harris |
| Alabama |
9 |
Trump |
9 |
|
| Alaska |
3 |
Trump |
3 |
|
| Arizona |
11 |
Swing (Trump) |
11 |
|
| Arkansas |
6 |
Trump |
6 |
|
| California |
54 |
Harris |
|
54 |
| Colorado |
10 |
Harris |
|
10 |
| Connecticut |
7 |
Harris |
|
7 |
| Delaware |
3 |
Harris |
|
3 |
| District of Columbia |
3 |
Harris |
|
3 |
| Florida |
30 |
Trump |
30 |
|
| Georgia |
16 |
Swing (Harris) |
|
16 |
| Hawaii |
4 |
Harris |
|
4 |
| Idaho |
4 |
Trump |
4 |
|
| Illinois |
19 |
Harris |
|
19 |
| Indiana |
11 |
Trump |
11 |
|
| Iowa |
6 |
Trump |
6 |
|
| Kansas |
6 |
Trump |
6 |
|
| Kentucky |
8 |
Trump |
8 |
|
| Louisiana |
8 |
Trump |
8 |
|
| Maine |
4 |
Harris (3) Trump (1) |
1 |
3 |
| Maryland |
10 |
Harris |
|
10 |
| Massachusetts |
11 |
Harris |
|
11 |
| Michigan |
15 |
Swing (Harris) |
|
15 |
| Minnesota |
10 |
Harris |
|
10 |
| Mississippi |
6 |
Trump |
6 |
|
| Missouri |
10 |
Trump |
10 |
|
| Montana |
4 |
Trump |
4 |
|
| Nebraska |
5 |
Trump (4) Harris (1) |
4 |
1 |
| Nevada |
6 |
Swing (Trump) |
6 |
|
| New Hampshire |
4 |
Harris |
|
4 |
| New Jersey |
14 |
Harris |
|
14 |
| New Mexico |
5 |
Harris |
|
5 |
| New York |
28 |
Harris |
|
28 |
| North Carolina |
16 |
Trump |
16 |
|
| North Dakota |
3 |
Trump |
3 |
|
| Ohio |
17 |
Trump |
17 |
|
| Oklahoma |
7 |
Trump |
7 |
|
| Oregon |
8 |
Harris |
|
8 |
| Pennsylvania |
19 |
Swing (Trump) |
19 |
|
| Rhode Island |
4 |
Harris |
|
4 |
| South Carolina |
9 |
Trump |
9 |
|
| South Dakota |
3 |
Trump |
3 |
|
| Tennessee |
11 |
Trump |
11 |
|
| Texas |
40 |
Trump |
40 |
|
| Utah |
6 |
Trump |
6 |
|
| Vermont |
3 |
Harris |
|
3 |
| Virginia |
13 |
Harris |
|
13 |
| Washington |
12 |
Harris |
|
12 |
| West Virginia |
4 |
Trump |
4 |
|
| Wisconsin |
10 |
Swing (Harris) |
|
10 |
| Wyoming |
3 |
Trump |
3 |
|
|
| Total |
538 |
|
271 |
267 |
List of states by presumptive winner with margin of error in favour of Mr Trump
Trump vs Harris
| State |
Electoral College Votes |
SRF Presumptive Winner |
Votes for Trump |
Votes for Harris |
| Alabama |
9 |
Trump |
9 |
|
| Alaska |
3 |
Trump |
3 |
|
| Arizona |
11 |
Swing (Trump) |
11 |
|
| Arkansas |
6 |
Trump |
6 |
|
| California |
54 |
Harris |
|
54 |
| Colorado |
10 |
Harris |
|
10 |
| Connecticut |
7 |
Harris |
|
7 |
| Delaware |
3 |
Harris |
|
3 |
| District of Columbia |
3 |
Harris |
|
3 |
| Florida |
30 |
Trump |
30 |
|
| Georgia |
16 |
Swing (Trump) |
16 |
|
| Hawaii |
4 |
Harris |
|
4 |
| Idaho |
4 |
Trump |
4 |
|
| Illinois |
19 |
Harris |
|
19 |
| Indiana |
11 |
Trump |
11 |
|
| Iowa |
6 |
Trump |
6 |
|
| Kansas |
6 |
Trump |
6 |
|
| Kentucky |
8 |
Trump |
8 |
|
| Louisiana |
8 |
Trump |
8 |
|
| Maine |
4 |
Harris (3) Trump (1) |
1 |
3 |
| Maryland |
10 |
Harris |
|
10 |
| Massachusetts |
11 |
Harris |
|
11 |
| Michigan |
15 |
Swing (Trump) |
15 |
|
| Minnesota |
10 |
Harris |
|
10 |
| Mississippi |
6 |
Trump |
6 |
|
| Missouri |
10 |
Trump |
10 |
|
| Montana |
4 |
Trump |
4 |
|
| Nebraska |
5 |
Trump (4) Harris (1) |
4 |
1 |
| Nevada |
6 |
Swing (Trump) |
6 |
|
| New Hampshire |
4 |
Harris |
|
4 |
| New Jersey |
14 |
Harris |
|
14 |
| New Mexico |
5 |
Harris |
|
5 |
| New York |
28 |
Harris |
|
28 |
| North Carolina |
16 |
Trump |
16 |
|
| North Dakota |
3 |
Trump |
3 |
|
| Ohio |
17 |
Trump |
17 |
|
| Oklahoma |
7 |
Trump |
7 |
|
| Oregon |
8 |
Harris |
|
8 |
| Pennsylvania |
19 |
Swing (Trump) |
19 |
|
| Rhode Island |
4 |
Harris |
|
4 |
| South Carolina |
9 |
Trump |
9 |
|
| South Dakota |
3 |
Trump |
3 |
|
| Tennessee |
11 |
Trump |
11 |
|
| Texas |
40 |
Trump |
40 |
|
| Utah |
6 |
Trump |
6 |
|
| Vermont |
3 |
Harris |
|
3 |
| Virginia |
13 |
Harris |
|
13 |
| Washington |
12 |
Harris |
|
12 |
| West Virginia |
4 |
Trump |
4 |
|
| Wisconsin |
10 |
Swing (Trump) |
10 |
|
| Wyoming |
3 |
Trump |
3 |
|
|
| Total |
538 |
|
312 |
226 |
List of states by presumptive winner with margin of error in favour of Ms Harris
Trump vs Harris
| State |
Electoral College Votes |
SRF Presumptive Winner |
Votes for Trump |
Votes for Harris |
| Alabama |
9 |
Trump |
9 |
|
| Alaska |
3 |
Trump |
3 |
|
| Arizona |
11 |
Swing (Harris) |
|
11 |
| Arkansas |
6 |
Trump |
6 |
|
| California |
54 |
Harris |
|
54 |
| Colorado |
10 |
Harris |
|
10 |
| Connecticut |
7 |
Harris |
|
7 |
| Delaware |
3 |
Harris |
|
3 |
| District of Columbia |
3 |
Harris |
|
3 |
| Florida |
30 |
Trump |
30 |
|
| Georgia |
16 |
Swing (Harris) |
|
16 |
| Hawaii |
4 |
Harris |
|
4 |
| Idaho |
4 |
Trump |
4 |
|
| Illinois |
19 |
Harris |
|
19 |
| Indiana |
11 |
Trump |
11 |
|
| Iowa |
6 |
Trump |
6 |
|
| Kansas |
6 |
Trump |
6 |
|
| Kentucky |
8 |
Trump |
8 |
|
| Louisiana |
8 |
Trump |
8 |
|
| Maine |
4 |
Harris (3) Trump (1) |
1 |
3 |
| Maryland |
10 |
Harris |
|
10 |
| Massachusetts |
11 |
Harris |
|
11 |
| Michigan |
15 |
Swing (Harris) |
|
15 |
| Minnesota |
10 |
Harris |
|
10 |
| Mississippi |
6 |
Trump |
6 |
|
| Missouri |
10 |
Trump |
10 |
|
| Montana |
4 |
Trump |
4 |
|
| Nebraska |
5 |
Trump (4) Harris (1) |
4 |
1 |
| Nevada |
6 |
Swing (Harris) |
|
6 |
| New Hampshire |
4 |
Harris |
|
4 |
| New Jersey |
14 |
Harris |
|
14 |
| New Mexico |
5 |
Harris |
|
5 |
| New York |
28 |
Harris |
|
28 |
| North Carolina |
16 |
Trump |
16 |
|
| North Dakota |
3 |
Trump |
3 |
|
| Ohio |
17 |
Trump |
17 |
|
| Oklahoma |
7 |
Trump |
7 |
|
| Oregon |
8 |
Harris |
|
8 |
| Pennsylvania |
19 |
Swing (Harris) |
|
19 |
| Rhode Island |
4 |
Harris |
|
4 |
| South Carolina |
9 |
Trump |
9 |
|
| South Dakota |
3 |
Trump |
3 |
|
| Tennessee |
11 |
Trump |
11 |
|
| Texas |
40 |
Trump |
40 |
|
| Utah |
6 |
Trump |
6 |
|
| Vermont |
3 |
Harris |
|
3 |
| Virginia |
13 |
Harris |
|
13 |
| Washington |
12 |
Harris |
|
12 |
| West Virginia |
4 |
Trump |
4 |
|
| Wisconsin |
10 |
Swing (Harris) |
|
10 |
| Wyoming |
3 |
Trump |
3 |
|
|
| Total |
538 |
|
235 |
303 |
The data demonstrates that Mr Trump maintains a slight lead over Ms Harris. However, when margins of error are applied favourably to either candidate the result is to skew the outcome strongly in favour of that candidate. This is a different position to what the case was before Mr Biden's exit. With Mr Biden as the Democratic candidate the Foundation's estimate was that even with margins of error applied in Mr Biden's favour, Mr Trump was still set to win the White House.
